The RBO position, as I understand it, is more nuanced than you are arguing here.
The team's results in 2013 showed that Red Bull cannot obtain the brand exposure from this team regardless of the team's success or having expensive, talented, celebrity footballers on the roster.
The cutbacks in spending on the team have made it perfectly clear that results do not drive Red Bull's thinking. They'll get the same exposure whether the team is poor or whether it wins a Supporters Shield.
So to that extent, it doesn't matter whether or not the team does well - Red Bull's criteria for success has little to do with team performance. It really doesn't matter if we refuse to leave and hope the team wins, or if we refuse to leave and we hope the team loses.
From my perspective, I prefer to see the team win and STILL have as many supporters as possible shit all over Red Bull, so they will understand that it's hopeless: we will NEVER accept them, and since (like basically every sports owner) they will eventually sell the team, they might as well say, "yeah, fuck it," and sell NOW.
But in the meantime, even if you accept the notion that winning puts more eyes on the team, what better way to fuck with the brand by publicly condemning it on national TV every week. Can't get that message across at a Cosmos game.
I think it's hard to judge how RB would treat a "successful" year by the Supporters Shield victory. If and until RBNY is crowned MLS Cup victor, I think we have insufficient data.
The Rangers are on a solid pace to win the Presidents Trophy, but if they don't win the Cup the year is essentially a failure.