Jump to content

Are playoffs a crapshoot?


  • Please log in to reply
64 replies to this topic

#1
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

I don't want it to be just OK.  I want a Cup.

 

Yes, I'm quite certain we all do. 

 

We will make the playoffs, from there it's a crapshoot. Having the leagues highest payroll didn't win us a cup, it didn't even get us to a final. 

 

I bet you a beer we sign a DP before the playoffs start. 



#2
sabremike

sabremike

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,143 posts
  • Location:Brewster, NY
  • Supports:Metros, Man Utd, Buffalo Sabres

 
Yes, I'm quite certain we all do. 
 
We will make the playoffs, from there it's a crapshoot. Having the leagues highest payroll didn't win us a cup, it didn't even get us to a final. 
 
I bet you a beer we sign a DP before the playoffs start. 

I am so sick and tired of people who use the "MLS playoffs are a crapshoot so all we have to do is sneak in" nonsense. It's like the all encompassing excuse for incompetence and failure. The guy who came up with that line in regards to playoffs is Billy Beane, and it was largely an excuse to protect his image as a genius despite his team's utter failure in the postseason. So of course whose blueprint are we using?
Let's Go Buffalo!!!

#3
McSoccer

McSoccer

    First Team

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,877 posts
  • Location:NJ
  • Supports:New York Red Bulls, Arsenal

I am so sick and tired of people who use the "MLS playoffs are a crapshoot so all we have to do is sneak in" nonsense. It's like the all encompassing excuse for incompetence and failure. The guy who came up with that line in regards to playoffs is Billy Beane, and it was largely an excuse to protect his image as a genius despite his team's utter failure in the postseason. So of course whose blueprint are we using?

I get what they're saying, the playoffs aren't necessarily the greatest measure of who the best team. You'll get games like Sporting KC v Sounders in th first round in 2016, where SKC dominates and just gets unlucky. And then Seatle wins it all. That's not what happened to us though. We've been outcoached the last four years in the playoffs.

#4
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

I am so sick and tired of people who use the "MLS playoffs are a crapshoot so all we have to do is sneak in" nonsense.

 

I didn't say the "all we have to do is sneak in" part. 

 

Do you disagree, do you not think the playoffs are a crapshoot? Do you have some clear plan on how to improve our performances in the playoffs?

 

What does the evidence show us? If we use real data to back our positions, what does it show? We have had the highest payroll in the league for many seasons in the past - what did that get us? 

 

I'm not arguing against spending, I like DP's and transfer news just like any fan. I just think the situation is more nuanced than is being discussed here. 



#5
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

I get what they're saying, the playoffs aren't necessarily the greatest measure of who the best team. You'll get games like Sporting KC v Sounders in th first round in 2016, where SKC dominates and just gets unlucky. And then Seatle wins it all. That's not what happened to us though. We've been outcoached the last four years in the playoffs.

 

 

Several post-seasons we have won or tied on the road and then come back to lose at home. 

 

I don't think a DP signing is a magic bullet that fixes the issue. 

 

I agree with you, coaching, strategy and psychology are what we need to work on. 



#6
Grelladinho

Grelladinho

    Reserve Team

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 407 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:Red Bulls

I am so sick and tired of people who use the "MLS playoffs are a crapshoot so all we have to do is sneak in" nonsense. It's like the all encompassing excuse for incompetence and failure. The guy who came up with that line in regards to playoffs is Billy Beane, and it was largely an excuse to protect his image as a genius despite his team's utter failure in the postseason. So of course whose blueprint are we using?

Except they are a crapshoot.

Teams back in and get hot and win titles. Teams that dominate the regular season get screwed on away goals rule.

MLS playoffs are completely random, just like playoffs are in every sport.

#7
RedBullScouse

RedBullScouse

    Dir. of Football Operations

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,258 posts
  • Supports:Irresistable Mermaids/Liverpool/RU

Except they are a crapshoot.

Teams back in and get hot and win titles. Teams that dominate the regular season get screwed on away goals rule.

MLS playoffs are completely random, just like playoffs are in every sport.

"Completely random" they are not.   Small sample size does not equal completely random.   If it was random, we'd have a at least a couple Cups by now.    History shows that getting hot at the right time is not just luck, and that experienced coaches tend to have an advantage.    Yes, low seeded teams have won, but in the modern era, there's a reason LA has dominated.    When KC won, they book-ended the Cup with two USOC trophies as well.    Seattle has had a ton of USOC trophies.     It's not random, its not a crapshoot.     Jesse's had a grand total of two play off seasons as a coach, and it has showed in the results. 


"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." - Iron Mike

 

Bitch covered my plaid?
The sorrow inside me grows.
I need my plaid pitch.

"It goes without saying that when things don't go your way they just don't go your way. " - JCO

"He can't kick with his left foot, he can't tackle, he can't head the ball and he doesn't score many goals. Apart from that, he's all right.”
George Best, on David Beckham


#8
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

"Completely random" they are not.   Small sample size does not equal completely random.   If it was random, we'd have a at least a coupe Cups by now.    History shows that getting hot at the right time is not just luck, and that experienced coaches tend to have an advantage.    Yes, low seeded teams have won, but in the modern era, there's a reason LA has dominated.    When KC won, they book-ended the Cup with two USOC trophies as well.    Seattle has had a ton of USOC trophies.     It's not random, its not a crapshoot.   

 

I agree they are not "completely" random, but they are still a crapshoot. 

 

Seattle's previous USOC wins have nothing do with their momentum in the 2016 playoffs. We've had momentum going into the playoffs before. How about in 2013 when we lifted our first SS and everyone was going apeshit at the end of the season - that should have been a classic example of momentum going into the playoffs right? Nope, we lose to Houston AT HOME in extra time. 

 

I agree with you that it seems that getting hot at the right time is very important. But how do we do that? I don't think that spending money a DP necessarily ensures that we will get hot at the right time. 



#9
Voice of Reason II

Voice of Reason II

    Dir. of Football Operations

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,365 posts

"Completely random" they are not.   Small sample size does not equal completely random.   If it was random, we'd have a at least a couple Cups by now.    History shows that getting hot at the right time is not just luck, and that experienced coaches tend to have an advantage.    Yes, low seeded teams have won, but in the modern era, there's a reason LA has dominated.    When KC won, they book-ended the Cup with two USOC trophies as well.    Seattle has had a ton of USOC trophies.     It's not random, its not a crapshoot.     Jesse's had a grand total of two play off seasons as a coach, and it has showed in the results. 

So, do we get rid of him or do we think he can learn and get smarter? So far he hasn't learned the subbing game/not burning out his better players. What's the internal buzz on him, does he listen to sage advice or is he stubborn?



#10
RedBullScouse

RedBullScouse

    Dir. of Football Operations

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,258 posts
  • Supports:Irresistable Mermaids/Liverpool/RU

 

I agree they are not "completely" random, but they are still a crapshoot. 

 

Seattle's previous USOC wins have nothing do with their momentum in the 2016 playoffs. We've had momentum going into the playoffs before. How about in 2013 when we lifted our first SS and everyone was going apeshit at the end of the season - that should have been a classic example of momentum going into the playoffs right? Nope, we lose to Houston AT HOME in extra time. 

 

I agree with you that it seems that getting hot at the right time is very important. But how do we do that? I don't think that spending money a DP necessarily ensures that we will get hot at the right time. 

2013, the coach ran the team into the ground (appropriately) to get that first Shield.  They were gassed, especially a very old TH14,  and had no legs in the playoffs, and it was obvious to everyone watching.    An experienced coach (and one not so desperate) would have rested and rotated players heading into the playoffs... fresh legs, and experienced options on the bench, instead of dead legs, a tired game plan,  and inexperienced players expected to come off the bench into a big game and make a difference... like what happened last year... and they year before.

 

Seattle's USOC wins were evidence of, and added onto, their coaching staff's tournament experience - Schmetzer had been around for a very long time, learning under one of the all time greats.


"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." - Iron Mike

 

Bitch covered my plaid?
The sorrow inside me grows.
I need my plaid pitch.

"It goes without saying that when things don't go your way they just don't go your way. " - JCO

"He can't kick with his left foot, he can't tackle, he can't head the ball and he doesn't score many goals. Apart from that, he's all right.”
George Best, on David Beckham


#11
Grelladinho

Grelladinho

    Reserve Team

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 407 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:Red Bulls

"Completely random" they are not.   Small sample size does not equal completely random.   If it was random, we'd have a at least a couple Cups by now.    History shows that getting hot at the right time is not just luck, and that experienced coaches tend to have an advantage.    Yes, low seeded teams have won, but in the modern era, there's a reason LA has dominated.    When KC won, they book-ended the Cup with two USOC trophies as well.    Seattle has had a ton of USOC trophies.     It's not random, its not a crapshoot.     Jesse's had a grand total of two play off seasons as a coach, and it has showed in the results. 

Portland backed into the playoffs and walked away with a Cup. It's random.

The only non-random element is the lower seed has the advantage in the two game series.

#12
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

2013, the coach ran the team into the ground (appropriately) to get that first Shield.  They were gassed, especially a very old TH14,  and had no legs in the playoffs, and it was obvious to everyone watching.    An experienced coach (and one not so desperate) would have rested and rotated players heading into the playoffs... fresh legs, and experienced options on the bench, instead of dead legs, a tired game plan,  and inexperienced players expected to come off the bench into a big game and make a difference... like what happened last year... and they year before.

 

Seattle's USOC wins were evidence of, and added onto, their coaching staff's tournament experience - Schmetzer had been around for a very long time, learning under one of the all time greats.

 

Our substitutions in the 2013 playoff loss to Houston were Peguy (106'), Alexander (75') and Espindola (63') - I do not believe you can say that we had "inexperienced" players coming in off the bench. All of these guys saw good minutes in the regular season. 

 

The whole "running players into the ground" thing does seem to be a popular reason cited for our playoff woes for the last 6 years. But can we dig in and prove this with evidence and data? 

 

REGULAR SEASON STARTS 

2016 Seattle Sounders

Players with 30+ Starts: 4

Players with 20-30 Starts: 4

Players with 10-20 Starts: 5

Players with less than 10 Starts: 7

20 Total Players Started Matches

2 Players Made Sub Appearances and Never Started a Match

Source: https://en.wikipedia...nders_FC_season

 

2013 Red Bulls

Players with 30+ Starts: 4

Players with 20-30 Starts: 6

Players with 10-20 Starts: 4

Players with less than 10 Starts: 9

23 Total Players Started Matches

4 Players Made Sub Appearances and Never Started a Match

Source: https://en.wikipedia...ed_Bulls_season

 

 

Maybe the 2013 Red Bulls actually had more squad rotation than the 2016 Sounders did? 



#13
Indyanapolis

Indyanapolis

    Reserve Team

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 394 posts
  • Supports:Metro

Yes, playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

But using "playoffs are a crapshoot" to defend or deflect the fact that we're going into next season with no improvement at literally any position is stupid.


Frankly, since I am merely a fan and a not a fancy American soccer writer, I'm going to congratulate Wright-Phillips on a well hit goal. If I was an American soccer writer, I'd claim that the recently retired Henry was wearing an invisibility cloak and carried the ball into the net for the obviously unskilled Wright-Phillips.


#14
juberish

juberish

    Player/Manager

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 4,268 posts
  • Location:Brooklyn
  • Supports:RED BULLZ F.C.

Yes, playoffs are a crapshoot.

 

But using "playoffs are a crapshoot" to defend or deflect the fact that we're going into next season with no improvement at literally any position is stupid.

 

 

Wait, but how can both things be true? 

 

We already know that having the highest payroll in the league and signing big DPs didn't win us a cup. Our performances over the last two seasons have proved that there is no difference in how our seasons go, whether we have the highest payroll or the lowest. We have one of the best teams in the league already. 

 

What would seem stupid to me, would be trying the same things over and over again and expecting different results. I'm not defending the notion that "we've done nothing to improve" but rather, I'm arguing that the ways we need to improve might not be as simple and direct as signing a DP this winter. 



#15
McSoccer

McSoccer

    First Team

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1,877 posts
  • Location:NJ
  • Supports:New York Red Bulls, Arsenal
There's definitely luck in the playoffs. Both Portland & Seattle could (maybe even should) have lost their first round games. And then this year, Seattle wins without a shot on target in the final.

But you can't blame bad luck on our losses, at least not the last four years. Missed opportunities (Cahill, BWP, Sacha) and poor coaching (tired teams, Cahill substitution, BWP yellow card, not playing guys in the regular season and then desperately calling on them in the playoffs, not having a Plan B when the press is taken away) are all WE need to look at for our (recent) failures.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users