In each group, the top 2 teams advance. 4 of the best 6 third place finishers advance.
In a 4-team group, you have a 1/2 + (1/4 * 2/3) = 2/3 chance to advance
In a 6-team group, you have a 1/3 + (1/6 * 2/3) = 4/9 chance to advance
Really, really not fair.
6 groups. Four 4-team groups and one 5-team group in both the East and the West
Nashville stays in the West and is placed in a 5-team group with Portland. They don't play each other since they already did in the regular season.
Miami is placed in a 5-team group with DC United. They don't play each other since they already did in the regular season.
Random draw now not only determines the opponents, but also what the larger groups are. Top two finishers and 4 of 6 third place finishers advance. Problem solved.
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