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Metro - LA Game Thread


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#136
ivo

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Only if all variables remain unchanged. In fact, metrics do not even indicate past behavior. If they did, we would have a much better record.

Nothing can predict the future perfectly. XG does a better job than other stats, and a lot better job than past PPG. It's important to separate process from outcome, even if the outcome is the most important thing.

http://11tegen11.net...expected-goals/

#137
JBigjake54

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http://11tegen11.net...expected-goals/


A quick read yields some common truths:
Models take 4, or 6, or 8 games, to get going. There is a downward curve as seasons progress. Models are better at predicting season total goals and points, than actual game results. (Otherwise, sports books would shut down.)

We are good enough to beat the best teams, and bad enough to lose to the worst teams. 


#138
iced1776

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So were we 3-3-3-1 in the second half as well? I thought we switched more to a 4-2-3-1, but I could be wrong. Either way, there was a big space between Davis and the backline that we did not adjust to, and LAG finally began exploiting in that one 20 minute stretch (think of how much time Zlatan had when he drifted back). Marsch should have adjusted and brought Adams more centrally there to support the CBs. It also seemed that the team turned off for a stretch there. I felt that was very unlike the team, and the past weeks we haven't really been tuned up. Marsch mentioned this before the game as well. 

 

Tough to really describe either half with a straight-forward numerical system, the movement up front was pretty abstract. First half looked kinda like a 5-3-2 with Royer playing way up on the left wing, second half a little more like a 4-3-3 with Valot moving into the RW spot. Kaku played deeper than our CAM's ever have which gave the team a pretty fresh look, it was a joy watching him distribute from that spot all game.

 

Maybe something like this, 1st half on the left 2nd half on the right? edit: couple others pointed out correctly that Murillo really just dropped into Collin's spot with Adams out at RWB. Different look in the 2nd half just came from having a more traditional RW with Valot.

 

ZeaM2iv.png

 

 

Davis is an interesting choice for the lone defensive midfield spot - he plays smart and has a decent motor but isn't a natural ball winner. He's not gonna scare anyone away from trying to play down the middle of the field. Adams has better closing speed and better tackling, but is a little more of a wildcard. Not an easy decision for Marsch, but I agree with you that it would have been nice to see Adams drop a little more central in the second half.



#139
iced1776

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Long and Parker do a lot of things really, really well, but man they can be rough trying to play the ball out of the back. Long is a nightmare anytime he has to play the ball while facing his own net, Parker's kind of a mess no matter which way he's facing. That's the final frontier before those two can solidify themselves as one of the league's best duos.



#140
ivo

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Long and Parker do a lot of things really, really well, but man they can be rough trying to play the ball out of the back.

Agree, yet just count the times Long tries a long ball over the top to BWP. That's the first option of our offense when things aren't clicking upfront (last season, Perrinelle had a free reign to try as many as he could as well), and works quite rarely. Admittedly, when it does work, it's bound to end in a great goal by BWP (I remember exactly one).

It's another one of the pet peeves I have about Jesse's offensive approach.

#141
Eleazar

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it's not just jesse's approach, but it's supposed to trigger the counter press, when other team's player/defender win the long ball, there should be at least a couple of our guys closing that guy down to strip him or to force him to hoof the ball away. there's a bunch of youtube vids from "Tifo Football" that explain the counterpress. One I've seen the most re the press/counter press is the Leipzig one. 


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#142
Koko

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Long and Parker do a lot of things really, really well, but man they can be rough trying to play the ball out of the back. Long is a nightmare anytime he has to play the ball while facing his own net, Parker's kind of a mess no matter which way he's facing. That's the final frontier before those two can solidify themselves as one of the league's best duos.


Im anxious to see Escobar a little more.

#143
iced1776

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Im anxious to see Escobar a little more.

 

I'm a little worried they plan on letting Escobar slip away at the end of his loan. Seems like he's still behind Collin in the depth chart and is gonna miss time with Panama, but he's a young and talented player.



#144
RedBullScouse

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I'm a little worried they plan on letting Escobar slip away at the end of his loan. Seems like he's still behind Collin in the depth chart and is gonna miss time with Panama, but he's a young and talented player.

Collin will be older by then, and is already an expensive guy to be behind Long and Parker on the depth chart


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